Search results for "Belief formation"
showing 2 items of 2 documents
Forecasting Errors of New Venture Survival
2014
This article studies entrepreneurs' forecast errors around market entry. Using data on nascent entrepreneurs in the U.S. and start-ups in Finland, we find that besides being overoptimistic on average in both countries, entrepreneurs' survival expectations can barely distinguish survival from exits. Moreover, about one fourth of the entrepreneurs do not provide an estimate for the survival of a typical venture. However, among those that do provide it, the estimates are less overoptimistic. We also compare the forecast accuracy of entrepreneurs to those of macroeconomic forecasters. Our findings provide guidance for the development of positive theories of entrepreneurial belief formation and …
A note on beliefs formation in signalling games
1994
Abstract We present a new criterion, called incentive dominance, for belief formation in signalling games, which subsumes refinements criteria such as equilibrium dominance and divinity. It captures the principle of forward induction through explicitly modelling the player's thought process when forming preliminary beliefs.